The optics of forum diplomacy on Afghanistan crisis has witnessed a new turn. On 16th July 2021 US Department of state announced the formation of new Quad grouping. Apart from USA, the three participant countries include Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan. In a press release US state department said “Representatives… agreed in principle to establish a new quadrilateral diplomatic platform focused on enhancing regional connectivity.”
The announcement came after a meeting of the representatives of four countries on the sidelines of international conference on “Central and South Asia Regional Connectivity: Challenges and Opportunities”, which was hosted by Uzbekistan in its capital city Tashkent from July 15-16, 2021.
The conference had originally been scheduled to discuss building better transportation links across Central and South Asia, but it was mostly centered on Afghanistan due to the latest instances of violence as Taliban moves in to gain a larger territorial control in the country after an abrupt and unplanned (though announced) exit of US forces in early July 2021.
While modalities of cooperation are yet to be formalised, the announcement itself has created a buzz. What are the shades of implication of this new and strategically significant QUAD on regional and international dynamics? The Voices explains.
Why this new QUAD grouping?
Intensification of the cooperation for deepening of regional connectivity is being formally cited as the rationale behind the formation of the grouping. But participant countries have recognised the stability in Afghanistan as a critical element to achieve the same. Afghanistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated the sense in its press release. Ministry said “The parties consider long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan critical to regional connectivity and agree that peace and regional connectivity are mutually reinforcing.”
How credible is the rationale of connectivity?
In February 2021 Afghanistan agreed to join Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan (PAKAFUZ) railway project. For Afghanistan, committing to new transit is no less than exploring new roads for nourishment of its economy. Another member in the grouping and Central Asia’s most powerful and most populous state, Uzbekistan too has been exploring avenues of connectivity in recent times. Direct access to Arabian sea will facilitate seamless trade with south and south east Asia. It has already been investing in a railway project from Hairatan to Mazar-e-Sharif (Afg) which is expected to be extended to Peshawar in Pakistan. For Pakistan, it isnt merely about accessing new finances for connectivity projects but also about engaging in another forum optics to present itself as a key stakeholder in region.
Explaining the rationale of connectivity, Yuri M Yarmolinsky, researcher – Observer Research Foundation writes,“The strengthening of interconnectedness will facilitate the formation of favourable internal and external prerequisites for the development of interregional trade, cultural and scientific exchanges, as well as for maintaining peace and stability throughout the vast areas of the two regions.”
What is strategic significance of the grouping?
After an abrupt exit, USA was being criticised by diplomacy experts, as Taliban advancements gathered an unprecedented pace. Now the grouping is being seen as an attempt of USA to redefine its presence in the region. This particular shade of USA’s activism is the continuation of Obama administration’s central Asian outreach initiative C5+1 — the five Central Asian republics (CARS) and the US. The grouping is also an attempt to present an alternative development financing for the region. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China is proving to be a lure to most developing nations. However, BRI has its own consequences one of those is a threat to the sovereignty of the beneficiary nations. Hence USA will exploit the potential of the grouping in consonance with its B3W (Build Back Better World) spirit of sustainable financing announced at recently held G7 meet.
The grouping might trigger creative attempts by China and Russia to carve out an antagonist club. Some experts feel that Pakistan could become a proxy of China to this grouping which could prove counter-productive though another school of experts believe that Pakistan might take a few steps to appease USA and gain back the confidence it lost during the Trump years, as it continues to be listed in the grey list of Financial Action Task force. Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani too has recently been very vocal about Pakistan nurturing and funding terrorism in his country.
However, the extent to which such grouping would be successful in restoring normalcy in Afghanistan, is anyone’s guess.
Should India be keeping an eye on the new QUAD?
India has been constructively engaged in the regional development dynamics and Afghanistan peace process. Apart from anchoring Chabahar port project, India has been steering the vision of International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). But new grouping invites some strategic re-calibration. Regional affairs expert Andrew Korybko writes “India might be compelled to re-calibrate its strategy if plans for a PAKAFUZ project make its International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) redundant with respect to its Central Asian outreach efforts.”
The US presence in the grouping can be assuring in context of diplomatic containment of Pakistan but India will miss the presence in the grouping as it has already proven to be the safest bet for USA in the region in recent times. Their interests intersect in context of shades of Chinese adventurism and a mutually cherished shared sense of democratic order make India and the United States natural allies.
Story edited by NK Jha