The Russia-Ukraine war may well have deep ramifications for the Indian defense sector as well.
After Russian troops rolled into Ukraine a couple of weeks ago, the western world announced sanctions resulting in Russia hitting back with export bans. The turn of events has caused worries in the Indian defense sector. Russia, despite an overall decline in its arms exports over the past decade or so, still continues to be a major arms supplier for India. In October 2018, New Delhi had inked a $5 billion deal with Moscow that involved the transfer of five units of the S-400 surface-to-air missile system.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank that analyses clashes, armaments, arms control, and disarmament, stated in a report that the overall decline in Russia’s arms exports to India from 2011-15 to 2016-20 was almost around 53 per cent. As a result, Moscow’s share of total Indian arms imports stands at 49% from an earlier 70%, still a sizeable proportion.
The probable impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the inter-governmental arms deal between New Delhi and Moscow is not escaped the attention of Major Genera Ashwani Kumar Siwach,
“The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is definitely going to have a larger impact on the inter-governmental arms acquisition deal which we have with Russia. We in the armed forces rely on nearly 49% of the overall Russian arms and ammunition. So with the brewing conflict in the respected region, India can face a logistical supply and delivery chain disruption for significant deals in the pipeline. If the war is not contained or no ceasefire takes place a few years of delay is quite evident,” said Major General Ashwani Kumar Siwach (Retired) Head of Territorial Army commented.
As of January 2022, out of the five units of S-400 missile system, only one has been delivered to the Indian Air Force. A great degree of uncertainly looms when it comes to any fixed delivery date with the onslaught of Russia-Ukraine conflict. India has also entered into a joint venture agreement with Russia which involves technology transfer and manufacture of 6 lakh AK-203 assault rifles which is to be produced in a factory at Uttar Pradesh’s Amethi to fulfil the army’s rifle demand. In 2019 India had also entered into a $3 billion deal with Russia to charter a nuclear-powered submarine. The Chakra III, Akula class submarine is projected to be delivered to India by 2025 with an operational tenure of 10 years, with this in our arms inventory it will be the third nuclear submarine India would lease from Russia.
“The arms deal is likely to face some pushbacks. We expect the war to end soon but if not then we need to find an alternative mechanism as there are going to be huge supply chain disruptions. Such disruption can be a cause of concern for us if looking from immediate defense view in contrast to our recent tensions with China,” Defense Secretary Ajay Kumar said.
“I think it’s going to be very hard for any country on the globe to buy major weapon systems from India because of the sweeping sanctions now placed on Russian banks,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee told last week.
However, the defense ministry is also assessing the effect the sanctions on the Russian firms may have on India’s defense exports. Only the ceasefire and moderate talks can be expected for any smooth functioning and processing of the already signed arms deal.
Edited By- Saptarshi